Effects of climate change on groundwater level variations affected by uncertainty (case study: Razan aquifer)

Abstract In this research, the impact of human factors and climate change on groundwater level fluctuations affected by uncertainty within 27-year upcoming period (2018–2045) in Razan Plain is examined. To simulate aquifer performance, GMS model calibrated verified for two 18-month periods, respectively. forecast variables changes future time-frame, six CMIP5 models with three scenarios Rcp 2.6, 4.5 8.5 are utilized. study prediction models, method probabilistic levels precipitation temperature were used. technique, combining 6 3 mentioned each month, 18 values ∆T ∆P years approximated. After that, implementing appropriate distribution next 50% 90% estimated. Finally, considering general circulation forecasted. Eventually, based technique using model, influence variations under these determined. Results showed that climatic have a lesser contribution reducing plain, largest related to excessive withdrawal from aquifer. The reduction probability 0.9 0.5 emission Rcp8.5, Rcp4.5 Rcp2.6 about 40.8, 24.3, 32.3, 27.6 22.2 percent Based results, first priority planning management should be focused activities controlling amount These results clearly show main cause creating sinkholes sharp region extraction resources as result activities, including agriculture industrial demands, not change.